Summary update from iFast, on behalf of Kenanga & the private equity fund manager, Ericsenz Capital
Summary Table: Projected Exit Valuations and Discounts
| Fund | Asset | Base Case Valuation | Bear Case Discount / Valuation | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frontier | Klarna | $60-$80/share | 30% discount to IPO price | Based on peer multiples and market tailwinds |
| Frontier | Epic Games | $16.7 billion (fixed) | Fixed | Binding commitments in place |
| Frontier | Cerebras | $4.6 million+ (>2x return) | Fixed | Binding commitments in place |
| Frontier | Redwood | Flat (4.9 – 5.6 billion range) | 40% discount on lower bid range | Based on ongoing secondary market bids |
| Frontier | Axiom, 100 Thieves, Zapp | 40% discount | 40% discount | Reflects market feedback and prudence |
| Frontier | Spire | Confirmed cash recoveries only | N/A | Recovery ongoing; creditor impasse |
| Unicorn 2 | Klarna | Same as Frontier ($60-$80/share) | 30% discount to IPO price | Same assumptions as Frontier |
| Unicorn 2 | Epic Games | $16.7 billion (fixed) | Fixed | Binding commitments |
| Unicorn 2 | SpaceX | $350B base; $400B bull | Lowest bid for bear case | Based on secondary transactions and bids |
| Unicorn 2 | Wefox | Marked to zero | Fully discounted | Due to restructuring |
| Unicorn 2 | Calm | 40% discount | 40% discount | Muted investor appetite |
Frequently Asked Questions
- Will the Klarna lockup delay fund liquidation?
No, all other assets will be liquidated and distributed by end-2025. Klarna shares held until lockup expiry in March 2026, with final distribution in Q2 2026. - How confident are you in the exit valuations?
Confidence is high for assets with binding agreements (Epic Games, Cerebras) and those with active bids/negotiations (SpaceX, Redwood). Conservative discounts are applied to less liquid assets. - Why do fund returns lag US public market recovery?
Fund portfolios primarily include Hong Kong-listed and private assets, which have different market dynamics and liquidity profiles. Private market liquidity also heavily favors AI, limiting recovery in other sectors. - What is the status of Spire Animation?
Recovery efforts continue but are challenged by creditor non-cooperation. Only confirmed cash recoveries recognized currently, with hope for future value realization. - Will there be multiple distributions?
Yes, distributions before year-end 2025 for most assets and a final distribution post-Klarna lockup expiry in 2026. - Why was 100 Thieves invested in?
Selected during a booming esports/gaming sector with strong growth prospects and diverse revenue streams. The company remains resilient, but valuations are depressed due to reduced liquidity in the sector.